A research programme in financial economics

Markets do not only
process information.
They synchronize institutions.

Institutional Market Dynamics studies how shared constraints reshape portfolios, concentrate demand, and reorganize the covariance structure of markets.

Cconstraint
Agradient
Spressure
Γcovariance

One geometry.
Many institutional constraints.

Fuli YangGARCH Institute2026—
01 / Core idea

Information explains what markets learn.
IMD explains how institutions must act.

The central claim is that heterogeneous institutions can become endogenously synchronized when they optimize under a shared constraint. The mechanism is complementary to information economics: it explains common movement without requiring a common news shock.

Complementary to information economics. Not agent-based. Not a taxonomy.

01

Shared constraint

Institutions remain heterogeneous, but a common mandate, risk limit, market mechanism, or regulation narrows the set of feasible actions.

02

Common gradient

The institution-invariant component of the constraint survives aggregation and creates a directional pressure in portfolio demand.

03

Synchronized market

Concentrated demand changes covariance along the dominant pressure direction, producing measurable correlation lift and spillovers.

The synchronization law

Common gradient synchronization pressure dominant channel covariance shift

Γ = Φ(D / MC)
02 / Research programme

A theory tree,
not a paper list.

IMD is the umbrella research programme. IST supplies the theory ontology; Constraint Geometry turns it into a reusable method; Yang (2026b) and the Korea studies carry the framework into empirical identification.

IMD-1
Theoretical foundation

Institutional Synchronization Theory

Defines synchronization equilibrium and the causal chain from lower portfolio dispersion to concentrated demand and amplified price response.

SSRN Preprint · 7148838 · 07/20/2026
IMD-2b
Methodological layer

A Constraint Geometry State-Space Model of Dynamic Correlation

Develops a constraint-preserving state-space framework for dynamic correlation, combining intrinsic geometry with iterated Laplace smoothing and an empirical demonstration on ENSO-driven commodity markets.

SSRN Preprint · 7188139
Yang 2026b
Empirical anchor

Leveraged ETF Reform and Intra-Sector Correlation Dynamics: Evidence from Korea's KOSPI

Provides the empirical anchor for the IMD-2 Scaling Law (κ ≈ 16.4) using Korea's leveraged-ETF reform.

SSRN Preprint · 7158999 · 07/22/2026
WMMAO
Related IMD Programme Paper

When Markets Move as One: Institutional Synchronization after Trading Halts — Evidence from Korea's 2026 Halt Cluster

Documents the cross-sectional footprint of institutional synchronization when trading halts interrupt, store, and release latent order imbalance.

SSRN Preprint · 7148038 · 07/20/2026
03 / Representative papers

Five papers. One accumulating argument.

All working papers
IMD-2b · Methodological layer02

A Constraint Geometry State-Space Model of Dynamic Correlation

Develops a constraint-preserving state-space framework for dynamic correlation, combining intrinsic geometry with iterated Laplace smoothing and an empirical demonstration on ENSO-driven commodity markets.

Dynamic correlationState-space modelsENSO
View on SSRN
Theoretical foundation03

Institutional Synchronization Theory

Explains how heterogeneous institutions become endogenously coupled under shared constraints—without requiring common information arrival.

ISTEquilibriumInstitutional demand
View on SSRN
Empirical anchor04

Leveraged ETF Reform and Intra-Sector Correlation Dynamics: Evidence from Korea's KOSPI

Evidence from Korea's KOSPI on how leveraged-ETF reform reshaped intra-sector correlation dynamics and the institutional channel behind market co-movement.

DCC-GARCHETF reformKOSPI
View on SSRN
Related IMD Programme Paper05

When Markets Move as One: Institutional Synchronization after Trading Halts — Evidence from Korea's 2026 Halt Cluster

Uses the KRX halt cluster as the first empirical showcase of how institutional constraints synchronize rebalancing, volatility, and spillovers.

Trading haltsKRXMarket microstructure
View on SSRN
04 / Research frontier

The method is a research engine,
not a paper label.

The next phase asks when constraints activate, how their channels can be separately identified, and where the geometry travels next.

IMD-3 · Planned

Dynamic Constraint Activation

Time-varying constraints, endogenous activation, path dependence, and a Bellman formulation of institutional synchronization.

IMD-4 · Planned

Identification Protocol

A cross-channel horse race using benchmark reconstitutions, VaR regimes, ETF launches, and short-sale interventions.

IMD-5 · Planned

Emerging Constraint Classes

New constraint classes: ESG mandates, insurer capital rules, bank leverage, pension funding, and policy design.

“Synchronization is the theory ontology.
Constraint is one source of synchronization.”

Institutional Market Dynamics

Research programme · 2026—